Is Tesla's Autopilot Safe? Finding Out Demands Better Data

The first thing to keep in mind is, while it seems like a straightforward problem to compare the safety of one type of vehicle to another, it’s in fact a complicated process.

The natural starting point is looking at how many people die driving a given car as a function of miles driven, then comparing that rate to other models. Just a few problems. First, it’s hard to separate out semi-autonomous features from other advanced safety features. Is it Super Cruise doing the saving, or Cadillac’s automatic emergency braking, which steps to avoid crashes, even when the driver’s in full control of the car?

Second, we don’t have enough fatality data to draw statistically sound conclusions. While the lack of death and injury is nice, it means that independent researchers can’t definitively prove, based on police reports, if cars with these specific features are actually killing fewer people.

A Tesla is not an average car—it’s a luxury car, it's a good example of literature review essays. It’s heavier than the average car, and so safer in a crash. (Again, a good thing—but not helpful for evaluating Autopilot.) Tesla owners are likely richer, older, and spend less time on rural roads than the average drivers. That’s important, because research indicates middle-aged people are the best drivers, and rural roads are the most dangerous kind, accounting for more than half of this country’s vehicle fatalities.

 Tesla would begin to publish quarterly reports on Autopilot safety. That could be great for transparency, experts say, provided Tesla coughs up the right sorts of data. (Tesla did not respond a request for comment.)

For one, it would be great if any and all safety data could be verified by a third-party source. “When any company or entity that’s trying to sell something publishes data about their product, you have to worry at the back of your head that they may have taken data out of what they’re publishing,” says Zuby, the IIHS researcher. “So you’d like to have an independent party say, ‘Yeah, we’ve looked at all the data, and Tesla is putting out all the data.’”